Will Donald Trump say “Market”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Market” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2025 (50%), most recently on May 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Market
- Probability
- 54% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 2 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…America by far than we have ever had before and the stock market has set 88 all-time record highs since the election less than two…
…that's why you're building all of these plants all over. The stock market has set 88 all-time records in just this short less than 2-year…
…It's I I think it's great. It's good for everybody. The stock market has set 88 all-time record highs since the election less than two…
…ever been invested in any nation, anywhere in the world. U.S. stock markets have set all time records. And that's just in the last 12…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Market”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Market” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2025 (50%), most recently on May 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Market” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Market’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/market (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=market · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP