Will Donald Trump say “Hormuz / Strait”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hormuz / Strait” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 31, 2026 (44%), most recently on Aug 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Hormuz / Strait
- Probability
- 48% · n=9
- Settled
- 4/9 (44%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…was an article that more oil is coming out of the Harour Strait today than came out before this war started. Think of that. Think…
…our navies unbelieved the blockade more oil came out of the Hormone Strait over the last week than at any time previous including before the…
…recently escorted more than 1 billion barrels of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz, and more oil is flowing than at any point since…
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Hormuz / Strait |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Hormuz / Strait |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 15, 2026 | Strait / Hormuz | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Strait / Hormuz | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 4, 2026 | Strait / Hormuz | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Strait / Hormuz | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Strait / Hormuz | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Strait / Hormuz | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Strait / Hormuz | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Hormuz / Strait”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hormuz / Strait” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 31, 2026 (44%), most recently on Aug 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hormuz / Strait” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hormuz / Strait’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hormuz-or-strait (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hormuz%20%2F%20strait · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP