# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2026-05-04 · 53 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY04 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-remarks-at-the-small-business-summit · as_of 2026-10-24T11:48:27Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-04 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY04 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Small Business Summit , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-remarks-at-the-small-business-summit (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the Small Business Summit scheduled for May 4, 2026.
# rows 1-34 of 53 by p · more: offset=34 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Trillion	trillion	1	K	90	62	0.69	nnYnYYYYYY	1	1	0.72	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	K	237	162	0.68	YnnYnnYnYY	1	1	0.7	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	K	130	89	0.68	YYnnYYYYYY	1	1	0.68	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	K	165	107	0.65	nYYYnYnnYY	1	1	0.68	hist	yes
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	1	K	75	57	0.76	YYYnYYYYnY	1	1	0.67	hist	no
Iran	iran	1	K	96	61	0.64	YYnnYnnYnY	1	1	0.67	hist	yes
New York	new york	1	K	35	25	0.71	YYYnnYYYYY	1	1	0.63	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	1	P	134	87	0.65	nYYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.63	hist	yes
Big Beautiful Bill	big beautiful bill	1	KP	41	27	0.66	nYnYYnYnYY	1	1	0.62	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	K	30	20	0.67	YYYnYYnYnY	1	1	0.61	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	P	58	36	0.62	YYYnYYYYnY	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
China	china	1	K	149	93	0.62	nYnnYnnYnY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	1	K	213	112	0.53	nYnnnYnYYY	1	1	0.59	hist	yes
Stock Market	stock market	1	K	67	37	0.55	YYnYnYnnYY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	K	29	16	0.55	YYYnnYnnnY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Crazy / Lunatic	crazy|lunatic	1	P	0	0			1	1	0.57	hist	yes
Biden / Obama 4+ times	biden|obama#4	4	P	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Made in America	made in america	1	P	2	2	1	YY	1	0	0.56	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	1	K	25	14	0.56	YYYnnYnnYY	1	1	0.56	hist	no
First Term	first term	1	K	5	3	0.6	nYnYY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Invested / Investment	invested|investment	1	K	30	14	0.47	nYnnnnnnnY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Jerome "Too Late" Powell	jerome too late powell	1	P	2	2	1	YY	1	0	0.53	hist	no
Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times	billion|million|trillion#12	12	P	12	7	0.58	nYnYYYnnYY	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Job 10+ times	job#10	10	P	10	5	0.5	nnYYnYnYnY	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Oil / Gas	gas|oil	1	P	7	3	0.43	YnYnnnY	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Depreciation	depreciation	1	K	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.52	hist	yes
King	king	1	P	17	9	0.53	nnYnYnYYYn	1	0	0.52	hist	yes
Farmer	farmer	1	P	17	9	0.53	nYYYnnYYYn	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
Farm / Farmer	farm|farmer	1	K	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Loan	loan	1	P	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Strait / Hormuz	hormuz|strait	1	P	4	2	0.5	YnnY	1	0	0.5	hist	no
Tax Cut	tax cut	1	K	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	1	K	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	1	0.49	hist	yes
Tax 5+ times	tax#5	5	P	3	1	0.33	nYn	1	1	0.49	hist	yes