Will Donald Trump say “Farm / Farmer”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Farm / Farmer” at 11 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 2, 2025 (85%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 75% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 8 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Farm / Farmer
- Probability
- 75% · n=13
- Settled
- 11/13 (85%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…pretty good. But now Byron's endorsed by 36 Florida sheriffs, the Florida Farm Bureau, most of regular law enforcement, moms for America, and he is…
…very much. I love this place. USA. I know you're not all farmers, but I love farmers. I don't care. I don't care. And we're…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Farm / Farmer |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Farm / Farmer |  Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 4, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Farm / Farmer”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Farm / Farmer” at 11 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 2, 2025 (85%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Farm / Farmer” next time?
- 75%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Farm / Farmer’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/farm-or-farmer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=farm%20%2F%20farmer · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP