Will Donald Trump say “Covid / Pandemic”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Covid / Pandemic” at 1 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 12, 2025 (11%), most recently on Jan 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 7 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Covid / Pandemic
- Probability
- 31% · n=9
- Settled
- 1/9 (11%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Covid / Pandemic |  Polymarket | No | – |
| May 15, 2026 | COVID / Pandemic | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Covid / Pandemic | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 4, 2026 | COVID / Pandemic |  Kalshi | No | – |
| May 1, 2026 | COVID / Pandemic | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 23, 2026 | COVID / Pandemic | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 5, 2026 | COVID / Pandemic | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Covid / Pandemic | Polymarket | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| May 12, 2025 | COVID / Pandemic | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Covid / Pandemic”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Covid / Pandemic” at 1 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 12, 2025 (11%), most recently on Jan 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Covid / Pandemic” next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Covid / Pandemic’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/covid-or-pandemic (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=covid%20%2F%20pandemic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP