Will Donald Trump say “New York”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “New York” at 30 of 43 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 11, 2025 (70%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=43, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
New York
- Probability
- 49% · n=43
- Settled
- 30/43 (70%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…to me. He said, "Sir, I want to thank you very much. New York's finest, a great guy, big strong guy." He said, "Sir, I…
…things and set things up, crooked attorney generals like we have in New York, like we have in Minnesota, like we have -- I can…
…that we will ever, ever, ever surrender. It was right here in New York City that George Washington ordered the Declaration of Independence read to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 43 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | New York |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 22, 2026 | New York |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 4, 2026 | New York | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 1, 2026 | New York | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 14, 2026 | New York | Polymarket | Yes | 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | New York | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 24, 2026 | New York | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 4, 2026 | New York | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 23, 2026 | New York | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | New York | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | New York | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | New York | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 8, 2026 | New York | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | New York | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 25, 2026 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jan 18, 2026 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 12, 2026 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 5, 2026 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 29, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 22, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 15, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 8, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 24, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 17, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 13, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 13, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 12, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 25, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 21, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 18, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 23, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 18, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 11, 2025 | New York | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “New York”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “New York” at 30 of 43 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 11, 2025 (70%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “New York” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=43). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘New York’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/new-york (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=new%20york · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP