Will Donald Trump say “Crazy / Lunatic”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crazy / Lunatic” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 4, 2026.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Crazy / Lunatic
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 3 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…nominated the most extreme anti-American radicals ever to seek office, including far-left lunatic. I mean, I couldn't believe that she got the nomination. It was…
…She really said she was a horrible liar. I mean, it was crazy. And he made a commercial. He put it up, you know, like…
…watching it cuz I try like what makes these people tick? It's crazy. But Lindsay respected Darlene more than any person on the planet and…
…it. I don't know where they're living. I don't know. It's a crazy situation going on. So, we have now a border that's as strong…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | Crazy / Lunatic |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Crazy / Lunatic”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crazy / Lunatic” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Crazy / Lunatic” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Crazy / Lunatic’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/crazy-or-lunatic (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=crazy%20%2F%20lunatic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP