Will Donald Trump say “World War”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “World War” at 8 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 24, 2025 (53%), most recently on Jul 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
World War
- Probability
- 43% · n=15
- Settled
- 8/15 (53%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…know, we have more four stars than we had during the Second World War. So if you notice, we've cut back slightly. We have to…
…a lot of people. They lost 50 million people in the Second World War. They lose a lot of people, but they're very big. And…
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | World War |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | World War | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (5 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 4, 2026 | World War | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 3, 2026 | World War | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | World War | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 8, 2026 | World War |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 12, 2025 | World War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2025 | World War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2025 | World War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 5, 2025 | World War | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 23, 2025 | World War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 17, 2025 | World War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 16, 2025 | World War | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 10, 2025 | World War | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 24, 2025 | World War | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “World War”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “World War” at 8 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 24, 2025 (53%), most recently on Jul 4, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “World War” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘World War’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/world-war (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=world%20war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP