Will Donald Trump say “Military”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Military” at 11 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 22, 2025 (92%), most recently on Sep 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Military
- Probability
- 64% · n=12
- Settled
- 11/12 (92%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…trillion, the largest investment we've ever made. We have the most powerful military in the world. We have the greatest military in the world. And…
…pour across our borders from all over the world. It was an invasion. That was like a military invasion. And if they win the midterms,
…seen there's a very clear connection between transnational cyber syndicates and enemy militaries in how they fund themselves, how they support their activities. So, if…
…the hottest country in the world right now. We have the best military, the best everything. We made the largest ever investment in the United…
…grief, death, tremendous monetary loss. We've given incredible amounts of equipment and military -- primarily military equipment, but equipment of all kinds, and it's time.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Military |  Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Military | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Military |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Military | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 1, 2026 | Military | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Military | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Military | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Military | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Military | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Military | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Military | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Military | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Military”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Military” at 11 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 22, 2025 (92%), most recently on Sep 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Military” next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Military’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/military (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=military · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP