Donald Trump: Monthly window, Jan 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say in December?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Dec 1, 2025 to Jan 1, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
25 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 81%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 73%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Pelosi | Yes | – | 0 | 66%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | – | 0 | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hunter | Yes | – | 0 | 59%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Turning Point | Yes | – | 0 | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX / TrumpRX.com | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 55%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 55%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Windmill | Yes | – | 0 | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | Yes | – | 0 | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | Yes | – | 0 | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | – | 0 | 45%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | – | 0 | 31%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | Yes | – | 0 | 19%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Moscow | No | – | 0 | 63%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fat Slob | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Third Term | No | – | 0 | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | No | – | 0 | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Nine War | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taylor Swift | No | – | 0 | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Stimulus | No | – | 0 | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 39%n=194 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JAN01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP