Donald Trump: Monthly window, Sep 30, 2026

By Sep 30Monthly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

42 known appearances
30 of 42 known appearances transcribed Window: Sep 1, 2026 to Oct 1, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 561 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (49 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

50 words · 31 settled yes · our count agreed on 24 of 24

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
CNN Yes1720✓67%n=7 from settlement history–
Fox News Yes1114✓68%n=2 from settlement history–
MS NOW / MSNBC Yes912✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Intel / INTC Yes78✓67%n=2 from settlement history–
New York Times / NYT Yes68✓68%n=2 from settlement history–
Google / GOOG / GOOGL Yes46✓68%n=2 from settlement history–
Apple / AAPL Yes44✓67%n=2 from settlement history–
General Motors / GM Yes44✓63%n=4 from settlement history–
UFC Yes44✓61%n=44 from settlement history–
Boeing Yes45✓60%n=13 from settlement history–
Toyota Yes44✓60%n=8 from settlement history–
Honda / HMC Yes44✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Chevron / CVX Yes44✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Nvidia / NVDA Yes37✓68%n=2 from settlement history–
Amazon / AMZN Yes23✓68%n=2 from settlement history–
X / Twitter Yes27✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
ExxonMobil / XOM Yes22✓54%n=2 from settlement history–
DoorDash / DASH Yes22✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Dell Yes11✓68%n=10 from settlement history–
Microsoft / MSFT Yes12✓55%n=2 from settlement history–
Pfizer / PFE Yes11✓55%n=2 from settlement history–
Netflix / NFLX Yes11✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Eli Lilly / LLY Yes11✓53%n=5 from settlement history–
Anthropic / Claude Yes14✓40%n=5 from settlement history–
Meta Yes–2–63%n=3 from settlement history–
Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz Yes–0––new new word, no probability yet–
BBC Yes–0–54%n=4 from settlement history–
Airbnb / ABNB Yes–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Turning Point Yes–1–47%n=10 from settlement history–
TikTok Yes–0–41%n=63 from settlement history–
ChatGPT / OpenAI Yes–0–39%n=4 from settlement history–
Micron / MU No–1–67%n=2 from settlement history–
TSMC / TSM No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
SpaceX / SPCX No–1––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Deere No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
AMD No–1––n=1 too little history for a probability–
BlackRock No–1––new new word, no probability yet–
Caterpillar No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
IBM No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
JPMorgan / JPM No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Mastercard / MA No–1––new new word, no probability yet–
Qualcomm / QCOM No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Verizon No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Hyundai / HYMTF No–0–55%n=4 from settlement history–
Oracle / ORCL No–0–55%n=2 from settlement history–
eBay No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Paramount / PSKY No–0–54%n=2 from settlement history–
Rigetti / RGTI No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Tesla / TSLA No–1––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Uber No–0–47%n=4 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26OCT01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP