Donald Trump: Weekly window, Oct 6, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Sep 29, 2025 to Oct 6, 2025. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
23 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 62%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 61%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel Prize / Peace Prize | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Football | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 59%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Tylenol | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| UFC | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | – | 0 | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | 14%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Predict / Prediction | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Slopadopoulos | No | – | 0 | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ghislaine / Maxwell | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | – | 0 | 53%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Amish | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Buttigieg | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DeSantis | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Panican | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 48%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | – | 0 | 46%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | – | 0 | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-25OCT06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP