Donald Trump: Weekly window, Oct 20, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Oct 13, 2025 to Oct 20, 2025. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
21 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 74%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | – | 0 | 68%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 65%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Slopadopoulos | Yes | – | 0 | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Insurrection | Yes | – | 0 | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | – | 0 | 48%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Soros | Yes | – | 0 | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | – | 0 | 74%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | – | 0 | 72%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Football | No | – | 0 | 71%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | – | 0 | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Amish | No | – | 0 | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | – | 0 | 46%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | – | 0 | 45%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Ghislaine / Maxwell | No | – | 0 | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | – | 0 | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 38%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 33%n=135 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-25OCT20B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP