Donald Trump: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026

By Oct 31Monthly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

31 known appearances
6 of 31 known appearances transcribed Window: Oct 1, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 527 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (121 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

50 words · 29 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Fox News Yes1420✓71%n=3 from settlement history–
CNN Yes1319✓66%n=9 from settlement history–
Google / GOOG / GOOGL Yes1111✓71%n=3 from settlement history–
New York Times / NYT Yes813✓71%n=3 from settlement history–
Meta Yes55✓62%n=6 from settlement history–
Apple / AAPL Yes46✓70%n=3 from settlement history–
Boeing Yes25✓55%n=18 from settlement history–
Deere Yes22✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Dell Yes11✓74%n=13 from settlement history–
Intel / INTC Yes11✓71%n=3 from settlement history–
Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz Yes14✓67%n=2 from settlement history–
UFC Yes11✓66%n=46 from settlement history–
Toyota Yes11✓65%n=9 from settlement history–
MS NOW / MSNBC Yes12✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Microsoft / MSFT Yes11✓61%n=3 from settlement history–
IBM Yes11✓–new new word, no probability yet–
SpaceX / SPCX Yes11✓52%n=2 from settlement history–
Nvidia / NVDA Yes–0–71%n=3 from settlement history–
General Motors / GM Yes–0–68%n=5 from settlement history–
Micron / MU Yes–0–65%n=2 from settlement history–
Eli Lilly / LLY Yes–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Pfizer / PFE Yes–0–61%n=3 from settlement history–
AMD Yes–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Hyundai / HYMTF Yes–0–56%n=4 from settlement history–
eBay Yes–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
TSMC / TSM Yes–0–52%n=2 from settlement history–
Uber Yes–0–45%n=5 from settlement history–
TikTok Yes–0–43%n=65 from settlement history–
Tesla / TSLA Yes–0–42%n=2 from settlement history–
Amazon / AMZN open22–71%n=3 from settlement history100¢ Kalshi
X / Twitter open138––n=1 too little history for a probability68¢ Kalshi
Chevron / CVX open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability39¢ Kalshi
Honda / HMC open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability50¢ Kalshi
Netflix / NFLX open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability14¢ Kalshi
BBC open–0–62%n=5 from settlement history36¢ Kalshi
ExxonMobil / XOM open–0–61%n=3 from settlement history34¢ Kalshi
Caterpillar open–0––new new word, no probability yet24¢ Kalshi
JPMorgan / JPM open–0––new new word, no probability yet30¢ Kalshi
Mastercard / MA open–1––new new word, no probability yet12¢ Kalshi
Turning Point open–0–56%n=11 from settlement history15¢ Kalshi
Paramount / PSKY open–0–55%n=2 from settlement history100¢ Kalshi
Qualcomm / QCOM open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability17¢ Kalshi
Oracle / ORCL open–0–50%n=3 from settlement history32¢ Kalshi
Airbnb / ABNB open–0–50%n=3 from settlement history18¢ Kalshi
DoorDash / DASH open–0–50%n=3 from settlement history11¢ Kalshi
Verizon open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability6¢ Kalshi
Anthropic / Claude open–0–45%n=7 from settlement history34¢ Kalshi
ChatGPT / OpenAI open–0–44%n=6 from settlement history55¢ Kalshi
BlackRock open–0–43%n=2 from settlement history18¢ Kalshi
Rigetti / RGTI open–0–42%n=2 from settlement history4¢ Kalshi

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 23, 2026 13:08 UTC.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26NOV01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP