Donald Trump: Monthly window, Oct 1, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say in September?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Sep 5, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
22 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 54%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Football | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel Prize / Peace Prize | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Slopadopoulos | Yes | – | 0 | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | Yes | – | 0 | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 43%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | – | 0 | 40%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | Yes | – | 0 | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | 15%n=114 from settlement history | – |
| Ghislaine / Maxwell | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 46%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Buttigieg | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cracker Barrel | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DeSantis | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| McDonald’s | No | – | 0 | 45%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Panican | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taylor Swift | No | – | 0 | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-25OCT01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP