Donald Trump: Monthly window, Dec 1, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say in November?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Nov 1, 2025 to Dec 1, 2025. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
25 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 74%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Pelosi | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Moscow | Yes | – | 0 | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Hunter | Yes | – | 0 | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | Yes | – | 0 | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | – | 0 | 41%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | Yes | – | 0 | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | – | 0 | 36%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | 35%n=158 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | – | 0 | 25%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Crooked Hillary | No | – | 0 | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | No | – | 0 | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Slopadopoulos | No | – | 0 | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| 3i Atlas | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GameStop | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rocket Man | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Whack Job | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Third Term | No | – | 0 | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Taylor Swift | No | – | 0 | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 28%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYMONTH-25DEC01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP