Donald Trump: Speech, Feb 24, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during the State of the Union address?
Markets
44 words · 20 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 65%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 63%n=132 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times | Yes | 58%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Border 7+ times | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 2+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Olympic / Olympics | Yes | 52%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Scam / Hoax | Yes | 51%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 25+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Gaza | Yes | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | Yes | 50%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 50+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hockey | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| No No No | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Miracle | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alien | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 47%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl / Cocaine | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel / Peace Prize | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 35%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Cookie | No | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | No | 59%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 59%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | 58%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Job 20+ times | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy / Autism | No | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | No | 53%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 52%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Eli Lilly | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kamala / Harris | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Black / Hispanic | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Capital of the World | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mr. Speaker | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| The State of the Union is strong | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Coal | No | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gold Card / Trump Card | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Steroid | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peanut | No | 40%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late | No | 34%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 28%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 14%n=252 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-the-state-of-the-union-address · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP