Will Donald Trump say “Cognitive”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cognitive” at 5 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 10, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes no yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Cognitive
- Probability
- 64% · n=10
- Settled
- 5/10 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I feel the same way. I'm the only person that took three cognitive tests. No other president's ever taken it or vice president has ever…
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Cognitive |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Cognitive | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (30 of 42 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Cognitive | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cognitive | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Cognitive | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Cognitive |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (9 of 13 known appearances transcribed)) |
| May 27, 2026 | Cognitive | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Cognitive | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Cognitive | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Cognitive | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Cognitive”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cognitive” at 5 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 10, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Cognitive” next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Cognitive’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cognitive (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cognitive · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP