Will Donald Trump say “Predict / Prediction”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Predict / Prediction” at 31 of 45 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2025 (69%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 70% (n=45, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
70%from settlement history only · n=45Next: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 99¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Predict / Prediction
- Probability
- 70% · n=45
- Settled
- 31/45 (69%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…very handsome husband. He's a good-looking husband. And Darlene gonna be I predict Darlene is gonna be more important than all of you. I don't…
Every settled listing
newest first · 45 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Predict / Prediction |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (30 of 42 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Predict / Prediction |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Predict / Prediction | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Predict / Prediction”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Predict / Prediction” at 31 of 45 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2025 (69%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Predict / Prediction” next time?
- 70%, from settlement history (n=45). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Predict / Prediction’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/predict-or-prediction (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=predict%20%2F%20prediction · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP