Will Donald Trump say “Pelosi”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pelosi” at 14 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 1, 2025 (82%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 65% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Pelosi
- Probability
- 65% · n=17
- Settled
- 14/17 (82%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Pelosi |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Pelosi |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Pelosi | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Pelosi | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Pelosi | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Pelosi | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (39 of 53 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Pelosi | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | Pelosi | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Pelosi | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Pelosi | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Pelosi | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Pelosi | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Pelosi | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Pelosi | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Pelosi | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Pelosi | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Pelosi | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Pelosi”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pelosi” at 14 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 1, 2025 (82%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Pelosi” next time?
- 65%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Pelosi’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/pelosi (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=pelosi · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP