# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · next window_month, open until 2026-10-31 · 26 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26NOV01 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:35:03Z
# scope K named · n/y settled · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-22..2026-10-23 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26NOV01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after October 1, 2026 at 10:00am ET and before Nov 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 5 of 31 known appearances transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-23T22:50:09Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	45	31	0.69	YYnYYYYYYn	8	1	0.7	1	1			
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	194	121	0.62	YYYnYYYYYY	8	3	0.69	16	16	yes	1	
Space Force	space force	40	22	0.55	YYnYYYnnnn	8	1	0.68	3	4	yes	1	
Dividend / Stimulus	dividend|stimulus	40	29	0.72	YYYYYYYYYY	8	3	0.67	10	10	yes	1	
UFC	ufc	48	24	0.5	nYYnYYYYYY	8	1	0.66	1	1	yes	1	
Pelosi	pelosi	17	14	0.82	YnnYnYYYYY	8	0	0.65	1	1	yes	1	
Cognitive	cognitive	10	5	0.5	nnYnYnYYnY	8	1	0.64	4	4	yes	1	
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	29	13	0.45	nnYnYnYYYY	8	0	0.64	0	0			
Deal / Settle / Settled	deal|settle|settled	2	2	1	YY	8	7	0.63	82	87	yes	1	
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	52	35	0.67	YYYnnYYYnY	8	1	0.63	2	2	yes	1	
Filibuster	filibuster	26	10	0.38	YnnnnnYnnn	8	0	0.58	0	0	yes		1
Aluminum	aluminum	12	3	0.25	nnnnnYnYnn	8	1	0.55	1	1	yes	1	
Autism	autism	37	18	0.49	nnnnnYYnnY	8	1	0.54	3	3			
Peptide	peptide	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.52	0	0			
Moon	moon	38	19	0.5	YnnYYnYYYY	8	0	0.49	0	0	yes		1
Newscum	newscum	81	45	0.56	YnnnnnnnYY	8	0	0.47	1	1	yes	1	
Antifa	antifa	30	6	0.2	nnnYYYnnnn	8	1	0.44	0	0			
Greenland	greenland	62	24	0.39	nnnnnnYnYY	8	3	0.42	5	8	yes	1	
Third Term	third term	25	9	0.36	nYYnYYnnnY	8	1	0.42	2	2	yes	1	
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	46	14	0.3	nnYYnnnYYn	8	0	0.41	2	2	yes	1	
Epstein	epstein	141	30	0.21	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.27	0	0			
Ceasefire	ceasefire	133	19	0.14	nnnnnnnnnn	8	1	0.26	1	1	yes	1	
Make Iran Great Again	make iran great again	15	1	0.07	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.22	0	0			
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	56	9	0.16	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.17	0	0			
Golden Dome	golden dome	58	8	0.14	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.16	0	0			
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	34	3	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.13	0	0