Will Donald Trump say “Aluminum”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Aluminum” at 3 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 2, 2025 (25%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Aluminum
- Probability
- 55% · n=12
- Settled
- 3/12 (25%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…a lot of things right. But, you know, we have copper and aluminum. Henry knows this. Steel. And we came we're we the steel industry…
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Aluminum |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Aluminum |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Aluminum | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aluminum | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Aluminum | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Aluminum | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Aluminum | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Aluminum | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Aluminum | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 16, 2025 | Aluminum | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 30, 2025 | Aluminum | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 6, 2025 | Aluminum | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Aluminum | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Aluminum”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Aluminum” at 3 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 2, 2025 (25%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Aluminum” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Aluminum’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/aluminum (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=aluminum · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP