Will Donald Trump say “Autism”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Autism” at 18 of 37 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 22, 2025 (49%), most recently on Sep 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=37, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
54%from settlement history only · n=37Next: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 99¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Autism
- Probability
- 54% · n=37
- Settled
- 18/37 (49%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…devastating to any country. So, when Nick showed us that, for example, autism services, which was supposed to be $1 billion, had now gotten to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 37 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Autism |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (30 of 42 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Autism |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Autism | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | 11 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (30 of 40 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (10 of 12 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (9 of 13 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (6 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| May 31, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 31, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 24, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 18, 2026 | Autism | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 17, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 10, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 3, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Autism | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Autism | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Autism | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Autism | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Autism”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Autism” at 18 of 37 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 22, 2025 (49%), most recently on Sep 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Autism” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=37). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Autism’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/autism (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=autism · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP