Will Donald Trump say “Fat shot / Ozempic”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fat shot / Ozempic” at 13 of 29 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2025 (45%), most recently on Sep 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=29, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
64%from settlement history only · n=29Next: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 34¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Fat shot / Ozempic
- Probability
- 64% · n=29
- Settled
- 13/29 (45%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 29 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Fat shot / Ozempic |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (39 of 53 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 18, 2026 | Fat shot / Ozempic |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Ozempic / Fat shot | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Fat Shot / Ozempic | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fat Shot / Ozempic | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Fat Shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Fat Shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Ozempic / Fat shot | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Fat Shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Fat Shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Fat Shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Fat Shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Fat Shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Fat Shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Fat shot / Ozempic | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Fat shot / Ozempic”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fat shot / Ozempic” at 13 of 29 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2025 (45%), most recently on Sep 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fat shot / Ozempic” next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=29). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fat shot / Ozempic’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fat-shot-or-ozempic (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fat%20shot%20%2F%20ozempic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP