Will Donald Trump say “Obamacare”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Obamacare” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (43%), most recently on Sep 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 62% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Obamacare
- Probability
- 62% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…think. He's been fantastic, whatever he does. And eliminated $125 billion in Obamacare subsidies, which is a totally corrupt form of health care. For foreign…
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Obamacare |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (3 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Obamacare | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 1, 2026 | Obamacare |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Obamacare | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Obamacare | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Obamacare | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Obamacare | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Obamacare”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Obamacare” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (43%), most recently on Sep 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Obamacare” next time?
- 62%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Obamacare’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/obamacare (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=obamacare · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP