Will Donald Trump say “Mars”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mars” at 5 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 12, 2024 (36%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 60% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no no no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Mars
- Probability
- 60% · n=14
- Settled
- 5/14 (36%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 0 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Mars |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Mars |  Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Mars | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Mars | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 1, 2026 | Mars | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Mars | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Mars | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Mars | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 30, 2025 | Mars | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Mars | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Mars | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Mars | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Mars | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 12, 2024 | Mars | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Mars”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mars” at 5 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 12, 2024 (36%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Mars” next time?
- 60%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Mars’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/mar (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=mar · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP