Will Donald Trump say “Mar-a-Lago”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mar-a-Lago” at 5 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 2, 2025 (62%), most recently on May 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Mar-a-Lago
- Probability
- 52% · n=8
- Settled
- 5/8 (62%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…a lake. It's got the only one that's on the boat called Mara Lago. I can go home to Mara Lago instead of being but…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mar-a-Lago |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| May 31, 2026 | Mar-a-Lago |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 1, 2026 | Mar-a-Lago | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Mar-a-Lago | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Mar-a-Lago | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Mar-a-Lago | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Mar-a-Lago | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Mar-a-Lago | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Mar-a-Lago”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mar-a-Lago” at 5 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 2, 2025 (62%), most recently on May 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Mar-a-Lago” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Mar-a-Lago’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/mar-a-lago (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=mar%20a%20lago · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP