Will Donald Trump say “Eli Lilly”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Eli Lilly” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 7, 2025 (43%), most recently on Sep 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Eli Lilly
- Probability
- 37% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Eli Lilly |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Eli Lilly | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 18, 2026 | Eli Lilly | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Eli Lilly | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Eli Lilly | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Eli Lilly | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Eli Lilly |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Eli Lilly”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Eli Lilly” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 7, 2025 (43%), most recently on Sep 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Eli Lilly” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Eli Lilly’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/eli-lilly (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=eli%20lilly · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP