Will Donald Trump say “European Union / EU”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “European Union / EU” at 4 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 17, 2025 (36%), most recently on Mar 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
European Union / EU
- Probability
- 28% · n=11
- Settled
- 4/11 (36%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…fellas. Okay. I don't know if they were necess upset with the European Union because it was Denmark, you know, it's had it. They've only…
…have deficits with almost everybody -- Canada, $90 billion; Mexico, $175 billion; European Union, $225 billion. We're cutting them way back to the old days.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | European Union / EU |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | European Union / EU |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | European Union / EU | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | European Union / EU | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | EU / European Union | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | EU / European Union | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 3, 2026 | European Union / EU | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 17, 2026 | EU / European Union | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 8, 2025 | EU / European Union | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 6, 2025 | EU / European Union | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | EU / European Union | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 8, 2025 | EU / European Union | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 17, 2025 | EU / European Union | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “European Union / EU”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “European Union / EU” at 4 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 17, 2025 (36%), most recently on Mar 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “European Union / EU” next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘European Union / EU’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/eu-or-european-union (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=eu%20%2F%20european%20union · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP