Will Donald Trump say “Vaccine / Autism”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Vaccine / Autism” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Vaccine / Autism
- Probability
- 36% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…devastating to any country. So, when Nick showed us that, for example, autism services, which was supposed to be $1 billion, had now gotten to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Vaccine / Autism |  Kalshi | No |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Vaccine / Autism | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Vaccine / Autism | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Vaccine / Autism”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Vaccine / Autism” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Vaccine / Autism” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Vaccine / Autism’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/autism-or-vaccine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=autism%20%2F%20vaccine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP