Will Donald Trump say “FDA”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “FDA” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 12, 2025 (75%), most recently on Aug 31, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
49%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
FDA
- Probability
- 49% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “FDA”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “FDA” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 12, 2025 (75%), most recently on Aug 31, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “FDA” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘FDA’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fda (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fda · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP