Will Donald Trump say “Crooked”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crooked” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 1, 2026 (60%), most recently on May 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Crooked
- Probability
- 40% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…be sitting in the Oval Office. The press is against me. They're crooked. They're horrible. They're reporting false stories. Everything's fake. And then I say,…
…Myers earlier this year, an illegal alien released into our county by crooked Joe Biden. You know who I'm talking about. strangled and killed a…
all. I think ABC is the most crooked of all. You know, it's funny. They spend all this money on on uh PR, you know,…
…of the things that we're finding in Minnesota and California, we have crooked politicians running the places, it really gets bad. Countless American victims have…
…I'm sure he's very, very happy monetarily. But the governor, he's a crooked guy, because nobody can be that that lucky to -- I mean,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Crooked |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 24, 2026 | Crooked | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Crooked | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Crooked | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Crooked | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Crooked”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crooked” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 1, 2026 (60%), most recently on May 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Crooked” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Crooked’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/crooked (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=crooked · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP