Will Donald Trump say “Pakistan”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pakistan” at 5 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 8, 2025 (50%), most recently on Aug 18, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Pakistan
- Probability
- 37% · n=10
- Settled
- 5/10 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…say for our country. You settle eight wars. You stop India and Pakistan. Two nuclear. You stop them there. I did on trade. I said…
…wars because of it. I say, "You going to fight India and Pakistan?" They were fighting. They 11 planes already knocked down. And I said,…
…I settled Kosovo, Serbia, the Congo and Rwanda. These were raging wars. Pakistan and India. Remember they were raging. Egypt and Ethiopia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. We…
…Thailand, Kosovo and Serbia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, Pakistan and India, Armenia and Azerbaijan. And of course, the war in Gaza,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Pakistan |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Pakistan |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Pakistan | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 18, 2025 | Pakistan | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Pakistan | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Pakistan | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 13, 2025 | Pakistan | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 13, 2025 | Pakistan | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 12, 2025 | Pakistan | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 8, 2025 | Pakistan | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Pakistan”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pakistan” at 5 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 8, 2025 (50%), most recently on Aug 18, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Pakistan” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Pakistan’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/pakistan (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=pakistan · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP