# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2026-03-09 · 53 words · K k:KXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR09 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-remarks-to-the-republican-members-issues-conference · as_of 2026-10-24T01:05:59Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-03-09 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR09 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of remarks to the Republican Members Issues Conference, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-remarks-to-the-republican-members-issues-conference (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the named event.
# rows 1-32 of 53 by p · more: offset=32 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	1	P	56	41	0.73	YYYYnnYYYY	1	1	0.72	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	K	196	136	0.69	YYnYnYYnnY	1	1	0.7	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	113	72	0.64	nnYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.69	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	K	135	91	0.67	nYnnnYYYnY	1	1	0.66	hist	yes
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	1	K	8	6	0.75	YnnYYYYY	1	1	0.65	hist	yes
Iran	iran	1	K	64	40	0.62	nnnYYYYYYY	1	1	0.63	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	K	96	65	0.68	nYYYYYnYYn	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline	1	K	6	4	0.67	nYYnYY	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
Big Beautiful Bill	big beautiful bill	1	K	35	23	0.66	YYYYnnnYnY	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
Eight War	eight war	1	K	60	35	0.58	YnYYYnnYnY	1	1	0.57	hist	no
Manufacture / Manufacturing	manufacture|manufacturing	1	P	2	2	1	YY	1	0	0.56	hist	yes
American Dream	american dream	1	K	3	3	1	YYY	1	0	0.55	hist	yes
China	china	1	K	122	78	0.64	YYYYnnYYYn	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
Transgender	transgender	1	P	76	41	0.54	YYnnYYYYnn	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
Egg	egg	1	P	21	9	0.43	nnnnYYnYYY	1	1	0.55	hist	no
Filibuster	filibuster	1	K	2	2	1	YY	1	0	0.54	hist	yes
Crooked	crooked	1	P	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.54	hist	no
Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times	billion|million|trillion#20	20	P	6	4	0.67	YnYYnY	1	1	0.54	hist	no
Hell 8+ times	hell#8	8	P	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	1	KP	161	88	0.55	nYYYnnnYnn	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Joe / Biden 7+ times	biden|joe#7	7	P	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.52	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	K	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Pakistan	pakistan	1	P	7	5	0.71	nYYYYnY	1	1	0.51	hist	no
SAVE Act / Save America Act	save act|save america act	1	K	3	2	0.67	YYn	1	0	0.51	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	K	63	34	0.54	nnYYYYnnYn	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
Kamala / Harris	harris|kamala	1	P	4	2	0.5	nYnY	1	1	0.51	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	KP	107	47	0.44	YYYnnYYYnn	1	1	0.5	hist	no
Cartel	cartel	1	K	11	4	0.36	nnnnYnnYnY	1	1	0.49	hist	no
ID / Identification	id|identification	1	K	4	2	0.5	YnnY	1	0	0.48	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	K	37	14	0.38	nYnnYnnYYY	1	1	0.48	hist	yes
Cuba	cuba	1	K	6	2	0.33	YnnnnY	1	0	0.47	hist	no
Golden Age	golden age	1	P	9	5	0.56	YnYYYYnnn	1	0	0.46	hist	no