JD Vance: Speech, Sep 15, 2025
Polymarket 'What will JD Vance say at Charlie Kirk Tribute on September 15?'
Markets
13 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Assassin | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Charlie/Kirk 25+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Charlie/Kirk 50+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Political violence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| American Dream | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jesus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kash/Patel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Patriot/Hero 4+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Radical/Extreme 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trans/Transgender 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woke | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-jd-vance-say-at-charlie-kirk-tribute-on-september-15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP