Will Donald Trump say “Thomas Jefferson”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Thomas Jefferson” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 31, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Thomas Jefferson
- Probability
- 45% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Thomas Jefferson |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (25 of 36 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Thomas Jefferson |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Thomas Jefferson”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Thomas Jefferson” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 31, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Thomas Jefferson” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Thomas Jefferson’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/thomas-jefferson (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=thomas%20jefferson · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP