# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-07-31 (settled) · 33 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01 · as_of 2026-10-24T13:41:08Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-07-31 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-07-27..2026-07-30 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Aug 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 39 of 53 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-22T15:20:00Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-30 of 33 by p · more: offset=30 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	132	85	0.64	nYYYnYYYYn	8	1	0.83	hist	11	12	yes	1	
Genius	genius	18	13	0.72	YYYYYYnYYn	8	0	0.74	hist	25	25	yes	1	
Trump Derangement Syndrome	trump derangement syndrome	16	12	0.75	YYnYnYYYYY	8	0	0.71	hist	4	4	yes	1	
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	41	28	0.68	YYYYYYnYYY	8	0	0.69	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Gulf of America	gulf of america	29	18	0.62	nYYYYnYnYn	8	0	0.69	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Dead Country	dead country	13	6	0.46	nnYnnnnYYY	8	0	0.67	hist	5	5	yes	1	
Palestine / Palestinian	palestine|palestinian	8	5	0.62	YYnnYnYY	8	0	0.65	hist	8	13	yes	1	
Space Force	space force	25	13	0.52	YYYYYnnYnn	8	0	0.64	hist	4	4	yes	1	
DEI / Woke	dei|woke	18	8	0.44	nnnnYnYYnY	8	1	0.62	hist	3	4	yes	1	
Pelosi	pelosi	11	9	0.82	YYYYYYYnnY	8	0	0.6	hist	0	0	no		1
Moon	moon	20	8	0.4	nnnYYYnnnn	8	0	0.6	hist	8	9	yes	1	
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	34	22	0.65	nnYYYYYYYY	8	1	0.58	hist	8	8	yes	1	
Newscum	newscum	70	41	0.59	nYYnnnnYnY	8	0	0.58	hist	5	5	yes	1	
Golden Age	golden age	18	9	0.5	nnnnnYYYYn	8	1	0.58	hist	22	24	yes	1	
UFC	ufc	42	18	0.43	nYYnnnnYnY	8	0	0.55	hist	12	23	yes	1	
World Cup	world cup	62	24	0.39	nnnnnYYYnn	8	0	0.54	hist	27	36	yes	1	
Cognitive	cognitive	6	2	0.33	nnYnYn	8	0	0.54	hist	2	9	yes	1	
Greenland	greenland	51	20	0.39	nYYnnYnYnn	8	0	0.53	hist	10	15	yes	1	
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	26	10	0.38	YYYnnYnYnY	8	0	0.52	hist	0	1	yes		1
Autism	autism	32	15	0.47	YnnYnnnnnn	8	0	0.51	hist	1	1	yes	1	
American Dream	american dream	23	13	0.57	nYYnYYYYYY	8	0	0.5	hist	14	28	yes	1	
Nine War / Ninth War	nine war|ninth war	5	2	0.4	YYnnn	8	0	0.5	hist	0	0	no		1
Kamala	kamala	34	14	0.41	nYnYnnnnnY	8	1	0.45	hist	13	14	yes	1	
Make Iran Great Again	make iran great again	5	1	0.2	nYnnn	8	0	0.44	hist	0	1	no		1
Third Term	third term	12	3	0.25	nnnYnnnnYn	8	0	0.4	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Epstein	epstein	128	30	0.23	nYYnnnnnnn	8	0	0.39	hist	0	0	no		1
Moscow	moscow	13	4	0.31	nYnnYnnnnn	8	0	0.38	hist	6	7	yes	1	
Knicks	knick	14	2	0.14	Ynnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.38	hist	0	0	no		1
Epstein Island	epstein island	4	0	0	nnnn	8	0	0.38	hist	0	0	no		1
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	17	3	0.18	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.33	hist	0	0	no		1