Will Donald Trump say “Trump Derangement Syndrome”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trump Derangement Syndrome” at 15 of 21 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 23, 2025 (71%), most recently on Aug 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=21, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.

57%from settlement history only · n=21Next: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Market
100¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=trump%20derangement%20syndrome

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Trump Derangement Syndrome

Probability
57% · n=21
Settled
15/21 (71%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say this week? (October 19 - October 25) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 19 - October 25) · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Georgia? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 21 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 30, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromePolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (35 of 45 known appearances transcribed))
Aug 31, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromePolymarketYes1
Aug 31, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromeKalshiYes2
Jul 31, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromePolymarketNo–
Jul 31, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromeKalshiYes4
Jun 30, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromePolymarketYes2
Jun 30, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromeKalshiYes7
May 31, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromePolymarketYes– (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
May 31, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromeKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Apr 30, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromePolymarketYes– (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
Apr 30, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromeKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Apr 26, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromePolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window))
Mar 31, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromeKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Feb 28, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromeKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Feb 1, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromeKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window))
Jan 31, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromePolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Jan 1, 2026Trump Derangement SyndromeKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Dec 1, 2025Trump Derangement SyndromeKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Sep 30, 2025Trump Derangement SyndromePolymarketYes– (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
May 30, 2025Trump Derangement SyndromePolymarketNo– (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
May 23, 2025Trump Derangement SyndromePolymarketNo– (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Trump Derangement Syndrome”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trump Derangement Syndrome” at 15 of 21 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 23, 2025 (71%), most recently on Aug 6, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Trump Derangement Syndrome” next time?
57%, from settlement history (n=21). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/trump-derangement-syndrome (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=trump%20derangement%20syndrome · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP