Will Donald Trump say “Dead Country”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Dead Country” at 7 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Jul 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 65% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Dead Country
- Probability
- 65% · n=14
- Settled
- 7/14 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I was with a group of people, but they say it all the time. A little while ago, we had a dead country. Our country
…less than two years ago. you know, um, our country was a dead country. You know that we were dying. We were dying. I've had…
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dead Country |  Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Dead Country | Kalshi | Yes | 14 |
| May 31, 2026 | Dead Country | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Dead Country | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Dead Country | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Dead Country |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Dead Country | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Dead Country | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Dead Country | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Dead Country | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Dead Country | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Dead Country | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Dead Country | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Dead Country | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Dead Country”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Dead Country” at 7 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Jul 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Dead Country” next time?
- 65%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Dead Country’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/dead-country (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=dead%20country · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP