Will Donald Trump say “Moscow”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Moscow” at 5 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 1, 2025 (31%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Moscow
- Probability
- 35% · n=16
- Settled
- 5/16 (31%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Moscow |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (25 of 36 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Moscow | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (25 of 36 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Moscow |  Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Moscow | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (30 of 40 known appearances transcribed)) |
| May 31, 2026 | Moscow | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Moscow | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Moscow | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Moscow | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Moscow | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Moscow | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Moscow | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Moscow | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Moscow | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Moscow | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Moscow | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Moscow | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Moscow”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Moscow” at 5 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 1, 2025 (31%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Moscow” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Moscow’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/moscow (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=moscow · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP