Will Donald Trump say “Climate”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Climate” at any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 24, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

36%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
Last 10
0/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 6 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=climate

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Climate

Probability
36% · n=6
Settled
0/6 (0%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 8:56In transcript

…Yeah. Very similar, actually. He betrayed Iowa farmers by voting to help climate extremists bankrupt your farms. and he campaigned with a radical left group…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 34:10In transcript

…in 12 years because of global warming, a name since reborn to climate change because the planet was cooling, not warming, and nobody was dead.…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled no

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 6 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 20, 2026ClimateKalshiNo–
Jun 4, 2026ClimateKalshiNo0
Aug 19, 2025ClimateKalshiNo–
Jun 5, 2025ClimateKalshiNo–
Feb 27, 2025ClimatePolymarketNo–
Feb 24, 2025ClimatePolymarketNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Climate”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Climate” at any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 24, 2025.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Climate” next time?
36%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Climate’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/climate (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=climate · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP