Will Donald Trump say “Germany”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Germany” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 24, 2025 (40%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Germany
- Probability
- 53% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…in from Canada, they're coming in from Mexico, they're coming in from Germany and Japan, South Korea. You know, they took our car. They've took…
…ones are coming in from all over the world. From Canada, from Mexico, from Germany, they come from China. They're coming from all over the
…not going to have a country left. And I said that to Germany and I said it to the UK. I mean, you take a…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Germany”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Germany” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 24, 2025 (40%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Germany” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Germany’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/germany (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=germany · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP