Will Donald Trump say “Rare Earth / Mineral”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Rare Earth / Mineral” at 15 of 45 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 18, 2025 (33%), most recently on Oct 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=45, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 24, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.

47%from settlement history only · n=45counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=mineral%20%2F%20rare%20earth

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Rare Earth / Mineral

Probability
47% · n=45
Settled
15/45 (33%)
Last 8 rallies
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:17:48In transcript

…that money, and we got a very big chunk of land and rare earth and other things, if anybody remembers. Let's see what that amounts…

What will Trump say this week? (October 19 - October 25) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 19 - October 25) · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Georgia? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 51 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 10, 2026Rare Earth / MineralPolymarketYes–
Sep 22, 2026Rare Earth / MineralPolymarketYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 22, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 22, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo0
Aug 7, 2026Rare Earth / MineralPolymarketYes9
Aug 7, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes9
Aug 3, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo0
Jul 28, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 17, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes2
Jun 16, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo0
Jun 16, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 16, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo0
Jun 15, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo0
May 17, 2026Rare earth / MineralPolymarketNo– (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
May 15, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
May 12, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
May 7, 2026Rare earth / MineralPolymarketNo–
May 7, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 8, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Mar 27, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Mar 19, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Mar 4, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Feb 28, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Feb 24, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Jan 14, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes–
Dec 29, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes–
Dec 13, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Dec 12, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Dec 10, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes–
Dec 5, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes–
Dec 4, 2025Rare earth / MineralPolymarketYes–
Dec 4, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Nov 13, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Nov 12, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Nov 7, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Nov 7, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Nov 6, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes–
Oct 30, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Oct 29, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes–
Oct 29, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes–
Oct 28, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Oct 27, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Oct 22, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Oct 21, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes–
Oct 18, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes–
Oct 15, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Sep 23, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo–
Aug 25, 2025Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes–
Aug 18, 2025Rare Earth / MineralPolymarketNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Rare Earth / Mineral”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Rare Earth / Mineral” at 15 of 45 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 18, 2025 (33%), most recently on Oct 10, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Rare Earth / Mineral” next time?
47%, from settlement history (n=45). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Rare Earth / Mineral’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/mineral-or-rare-earth (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=mineral%20%2F%20rare%20earth · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP