Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 4, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say at Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?
Markets
17 words · 3 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peace / Deal 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Malaysia / Kuala Lumpur | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rare earth / Mineral | Yes | 35%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Eight wars | No | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 49%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 48%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Cambodia | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border / Tariff 5+ times | No | 40%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| 31 years | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rwanda / Congo 12+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vicious / Brutal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 7+ times | No | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Steve / Witkoff | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 37%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| South Africa / G20 | No | 34%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Machete | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-at-rwanda-and-congo-events-on-december-4 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP