Donald Trump: Remarks, Aug 18, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Zelensky event on August 18?
Markets
16 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 58%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Pakistan | Yes | 48%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire 3+ times | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Putin 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 12+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | Yes | 33%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 5+ times | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest Country | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | 41%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Card | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Suit | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 15+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crimea / Donetsk | No | 32%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 28%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=110 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-zelensky-events-on-august-18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP