Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 15, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Bilateral with President of Argentina?
Polymarket What will Trump say during ballroom dinner on October 15?
Markets
31 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 80%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 72%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 69%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 67%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 66%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 62%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| China / President Xi | Yes | 62%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 59%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | 43%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Dollar | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investment | Yes | 41%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 36%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel / Peace Prize | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | Yes | 33%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 3+ times | No | 57%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 52%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Communist | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Slopadopoulos / ABC Fake News | No | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | No | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Bailout / Bail Out | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lithium | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peso | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rose Garden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 5+ times | No | 40%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Socialism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | 34%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 13%n=136 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP