Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 29, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during dinner with Business Leaders in Japan?
Markets
23 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 77%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 74%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 74%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 64%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 59%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 58%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Shinzo / Abe | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drug | Yes | 52%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 49%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ambassador | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Car / Truck | Yes | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Pipeline | Yes | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 39%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 35%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Toyota | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | No | 64%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | No | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Kim / Jong Un | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nippon | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP