Donald Trump: Remarks, Aug 25, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his meeting with the South Korean President?
Polymarket What will Trump say during events with South Korean president on August 25?
Markets
42 words · 23 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 79%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 68%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 66%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 60%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 56%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Washington / DC | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | 38¢ Polymarket |
| Border | Yes | 48%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 40%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Korea 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ship / Submarine | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 5+ times | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest Country | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | 50¢ Polymarket |
| Five percent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shipbuilding | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kim Jong Un | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Defense | Yes | 34%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| North Korea / North Korean | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Europe / European | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gaza / Israel | Yes | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 49%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Chip / Semiconductor | No | 46%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Samsung / Hyundai | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hyundai | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| LNG / Natural Gas | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Truck / SUV | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Too Late | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 37%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Missile | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Barrier | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Samsung | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trade deal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Martial Law | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | 34%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Car / Automobile | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Reciprocal | No | 28%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 20%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=111 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25AUG25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP