# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-03-15 (settled) · 56 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAR16 · P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-march-15 · as_of 2026-10-24T00:32:30Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-03-15 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1 · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAR16 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Mar 16, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-march-15 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-26 of 56 by p · more: offset=26 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	KP	59	43	0.73	YnnYYYYnYY	1	1	0.82	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	KP	47	31	0.66	YYYYYYnYYY	1	0	0.75	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	KP	80	44	0.55	YYYYnnYYYn	1	1	0.75	hist	0	0	yes	1
50,000	50 000	K	3	3	1	YYY	1	0	0.73	hist	0	0	no	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	K	32	22	0.69	YYYYYYnnYY	1	0	0.73	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	K	38	24	0.63	nnnYYYYYYY	1	0	0.71	hist	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	K	20	15	0.75	YYYYYnnYYY	1	1	0.69	hist	0	0	yes	1
Mental Institution	mental institution	P	21	16	0.76	YYYYnnYYnn	1	1	0.66	hist	0	0	yes	1
MAGA / Make America Great Again	maga|make america great again	P	47	32	0.68	YYYYnnYnnY	1	1	0.65	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	K	42	24	0.57	YYnYYYYYnn	1	0	0.65	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autopen	autopen	P	31	16	0.52	YnYYYYYnYY	1	0	0.65	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	K	22	14	0.64	YYYYYnnYnn	1	0	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	K	22	13	0.59	YYYnnnYYYY	1	1	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Golf / Golfer	golf|golfer	P	6	3	0.5	nYYnYn	1	1	0.6	hist	0	0	no	1
Et cetera / Etc.	et cetera|etc	P	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Ass / Shit	ass|shit	P	8	5	0.62	YnnYYYYn	1	0	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Hat	hat	P	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.58	hist	0	0	no	1
World Cup	world cup	K	11	6	0.55	YYYnnnnYYn	1	0	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	K	30	18	0.6	YYYYYYnnnY	1	0	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Nancy / Pelosi	nancy|pelosi	K	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
Central Casting	central casting	P	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	P	69	37	0.54	nnYnYnYYnn	1	1	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Cookie	cookie	K	13	7	0.54	YYYnYnnnnn	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epic Fury	epic fury	P	10	5	0.5	YnnnYYYYnn	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	K	33	13	0.39	nYYYnnYYYn	1	1	0.53	hist	0	0	no	1
Rigged / Stolen	rigged|stolen	P	0	0			1	1	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1