Will Donald Trump say “Cookie”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cookie” at 12 of 22 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 17, 2025 (55%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=22, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes no no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 99¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Cookie
- Probability
- 52% · n=22
- Settled
- 12/22 (55%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 22 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Cookie |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (5 of 31 known appearances transcribed)) |
| May 24, 2026 | Cookie | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 24, 2026 | Cookie | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 14, 2026 | Cookie | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Cookie |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Cookie | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Cookie | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Cookie | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Cookie | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Cookie | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Cookie | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Cookie | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Cookie | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Cookie | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Cookie | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Cookie | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Cookie | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Cookie | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Cookie | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Cookie | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Cookie | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Cookie | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Cookie”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cookie” at 12 of 22 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 17, 2025 (55%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Cookie” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=22). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Cookie’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cookie (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cookie · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP